Inflation
Prices rise a few percent every year, and that compounds just like interest. What will something cost later, what is an amount worth in today’s money, and how much do your savings really grow once inflation is taken off?
What is Inflation?
Inflation is the general rise of prices. At 2.5% a year, something that costs 100 today costs 102.50 next year and about 164 in twenty years: prices compound just like interest. Turned around, money loses purchasing power: 100 in twenty years buys only what about 61 buys today.
Interest on savings works against this. What counts is the real return: the interest rate after inflation. Savings at 4% with 3% inflation make you only about 1% richer per year — and with interest below inflation you get poorer, even though the number on your account goes up.
Prices and Purchasing Power
over timeWhat 100 Buys Later
in today’s money| Inflation | after 10 years | after 20 years | after 30 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 82.03 | 67.30 | 55.21 |
| 3% | 74.41 | 55.37 | 41.20 |
| 5% | 61.39 | 37.69 | 23.14 |
| 10% | 38.55 | 14.86 | 5.73 |
Worked Techniques
Rising prices compound: every year’s increase is on top of the previous one.
To compare an amount in the future with today, divide by the growth of prices. This is the same as discounting at the inflation rate.
The exact real rate is a little below the simple difference. The approximation is fine for low rates.
Sources & Verification
- R. A. Brealey, S. C. Myers & F. Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance, 13th ed., McGraw-Hill Education, 2020 — Ch. 2 (How to Calculate Present Values).