Customer Acquisition & Lifetime Value
Does winning customers pay off? Enter what it costs to win a customer and what a customer brings in each month, and see the three numbers that are always judged together: the acquisition cost (CAC), the lifetime value (LTV) with the LTV:CAC ratio, and the payback period: how long until a new customer has earned back what it cost.
What are CAC, LTV and Payback?
The customer acquisition cost is what you spend, on average, to win one new customer: marketing (advertising, campaigns, tools) and usually also sales (the people who close the deals). On its own it says little: a CAC of 500 is cheap if a customer brings in 5 000 over the years, and far too high if they buy once for 50.
The lifetime value is the profit a customer brings in over the whole relationship. It uses the margin, not the revenue. If 3% of customers leave every month, the average customer stays 1/0.03 ≈ 33 months. A common rule of thumb in subscription businesses is an LTV of at least three times the CAC; below one, every new customer loses money.
The payback period is how long a new customer has to stay before their margin covers the CAC. Until then growth costs cash. Customers who leave early never pay back, so with churn the payback of a group of customers is longer, and if churn is high enough it never comes.
Value Built Up per Customer
LTVWhere the Money Goes
your inputs| Part | Spend | Per new customer | Share |
|---|
Churn, Lifetime and Payback
CAC 400, margin 40 a month| Churn per month | Average lifetime | Still a customer after 1 year | LTV | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 100 months | 88.6% | 4 000 | 10.5 months |
| 2% | 50 months | 78.5% | 2 000 | 11.0 months |
| 5% | 20 months | 54.0% | 800 | 13.5 months |
| 10% | 10 months | 28.2% | 400 | never |
Worked Techniques
Take marketing and sales costs over the same period as the new customers. With leads: CAC = cost per lead ÷ conversion rate.
Margin per month times the average number of months a customer stays. Discounted at a monthly rate d it becomes m/(c + d): at 10% a year, 1 053.
Of every customer won, a share (1 − c)k is still there after k months, so the group as a whole pays back later than a single loyal customer.
Sources & Verification
- P. W. Farris, N. T. Bendle, P. E. Pfeifer & D. J. Reibstein, Marketing Metrics: The Manager’s Guide to Measuring Marketing Performance, 3rd ed., Pearson, 2016 — Ch. 5 (Customer Profitability: acquisition cost, lifetime value and payback).
- R. A. Brealey, S. C. Myers & F. Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance, 13th ed., McGraw-Hill Education, 2020 — Ch. 2 (How to Calculate Present Values).